Winners & Losers
What Top-Decile PE Firms Do in Their First 48 Hours on a Target (That Everyone Else Takes 2 Weeks to Finish)
The specific research workflows that separate top-performing private equity deal teams from the rest. Speed, signal hierarchy, and the prepared first meeting advantage.
Vlad Shostak
· 7 min read
Two Firms Get the Same Email on Monday Morning
Firm A receives a teaser from an intermediary. By Tuesday afternoon their associate has produced a 2-page company snapshot with a triangulated revenue estimate, growth trajectory, competitive positioning, and three key risks flagged. The partners review Wednesday morning and decide to pursue. When the CIM arrives Thursday they already know the answers to half their questions.
Firm B gets the same email. Their associate starts Googling Monday afternoon. By Thursday they have found the company's LinkedIn page, a press release from 2021, and an Inc. 5000 listing they are not sure is still relevant. The CIM arrives and they start the actual work. Their follow-up questions to the banker come 10 days after Firm A's.
The banker notices which firm moved faster. The seller notices which buyer asked smarter questions in the first meeting. The outcome is predictable.
The "First 48 Hours" Playbook
After speaking with deal professionals at roughly 50 firms, from megafund associates to solo independent sponsors, the pattern is consistent. The fastest teams separate research from evaluation, they have a fixed signal hierarchy, and they never mix the two phases.
Hours 0 to 2. Establish the Fact Base
Top teams immediately build what one partner calls "the fact base." Eight data points that determine whether a target is even in their strike zone.
- Revenue range (triangulated from employee count × industry benchmark, corroborated with 2+ additional signals)
- Employee count and 12-month trajectory (growing, flat, or shrinking)
- Industry and sub-vertical classification
- Geographic footprint (single site vs. multi-location)
- Customer type (B2B vs. B2C, enterprise vs. SMB, government vs. commercial)
- Ownership structure (founder-owned, PE-backed, family, corporate carve-out)
- Key executives (who runs it, how long they have been there, what they did before)
- Obvious risks (customer concentration, regulatory exposure, technology disruption potential)
None of these require a CIM. None require management access. They can all be determined from public sources in under two hours if you know exactly where to look for each one.
Hours 2 to 6. Draft the Investment Thesis
While slower firms are still assembling basic facts, top teams are already asking the questions that actually matter.
What would need to be true for this to be a 3x+ return? What are the two or three value creation levers? Who else is likely looking at this, and what is our differentiated angle? Is this a platform or an add-on? What is the likely hold period and exit path?
They can do this because the fact base is already established. They are not mixing data gathering with strategic thinking. The separation is the key.
Hours 6 to 48. Prepare the Educated First Meeting
By the time most firms are asking the banker for the CIM, top teams are developing specific questions that demonstrate homework. They are identifying potential add-on targets. They are drafting preliminary valuation ranges based on comparable transactions from GF Data or DealStats. They are briefing operating partners on likely value creation opportunities.
The result is that when they meet management, the conversation is substantive from minute one. They are asking about gross margin composition by service line, not "so tell us about the business." Sellers notice this immediately. It signals seriousness and closing capability.
Speed in initial research leads to better banker relationships, which leads to earlier deal access, which leads to more preparation time, which leads to better first meetings, which leads to higher close rates. It is a flywheel and it starts with how you spend the first 48 hours.
What Slower Firms Actually Do (And Why It Costs Them)
They confuse busy with productive
Spending six hours reading every page of a company website is not research. The website tells you what the company wants you to think. Public data tells you what is actually happening. An associate who spends a full day on a company website and produces nothing actionable has not done research. They have procrastinated in a way that feels like work.
They have no signal hierarchy
Every source has a reliability score. Top teams know this instinctively and budget their time accordingly.
| Signal | Reliability | Time Investment |
|---|---|---|
| Government contracts (USASpending) | Very high. Exact dollars, public record | 3 minutes |
| Employee count (LinkedIn actual) | Very high. Hard to fake, real-time | 5 minutes |
| Inc. 5000 listing | High. Revenue verified by auditors | 2 minutes |
| Funding announcements | High. Implies valuation range | 5 minutes |
| Job postings | High. Leading indicator | 5 minutes |
| Company press releases | Medium. Self-reported, promotional | 10 minutes |
| Industry reports | Medium. Dated, not company-specific | 15 minutes |
| Company website | Low. Marketing material only | Skip it |
Slower teams spend equal time on all sources. Faster teams go straight to the top of the hierarchy and stop when they have convergence.
They do not template their output
Top teams have a standard one-page format that gets filled in for every target. It forces completeness (you cannot submit it with blanks) and enables comparison across opportunities. Five targets evaluated in the same week can be compared side by side in a Monday morning meeting.
Slower teams produce ad-hoc write-ups that vary in depth and structure every time. Impossible to compare. Impossible to systematize.
The Three Structural Advantages of Speed
1. More At-Bats
If your initial screen takes 2 hours instead of 2 weeks, you evaluate 10x more companies with the same team. A 2-person deal team screening 3 companies per week will look at 150 per year. The same team at speed screens 500+. With a 1 to 2 percent close rate, that is 5 to 10 deals instead of 1 to 3.
2. Banker Reputation Compounds Over Years
Investment bankers remember which firms respond fast and substantively. Over time, the fastest firms get earlier notifications, more time before processes go wide, occasional exclusivity windows, and better management access pre-CIM. This compounds. The firms that are "first call" for every banker in their vertical did not get there by being slow.
3. Seller Confidence
Sellers, especially founders selling for the first time, choose buyers partly based on perceived competence. The number one fear of every founder selling their company is that the buyer will retrade or fail to close. Walking into a first meeting already knowing the business, asking questions that demonstrate preparation, signals closing capability. That matters more than most buyers realize.
How to Become a "First 48 Hours" Firm
If you see your team in the slower patterns above, the fixes are structural, not motivational.
Create a standard target sheet. One page, eight fields, must be completed within 24 hours of any new opportunity. No exceptions, no freeform write-ups.
Build a source hierarchy. Know exactly where to look for each of the eight facts. Eliminate the random Googling that masquerades as research.
Separate research from evaluation. Never let an associate do both simultaneously. Research first (2 hours maximum), then evaluate (1 hour). The mixing is where time disappears.
Set a time box. If your associate has not produced the fact base in 2 hours, the opportunity is either too complex for this stage or they are looking in the wrong places. Either way, escalate.
Automate the repeatable parts. Employee counts, revenue estimation, basic financials, and competitive mapping can be systematized. Your people should spend time on judgment, relationships, and creative deal structuring. Not data gathering.
What We Built
Internal Insight produces the entire fact base in under 30 seconds. Same triangulation methodology top firms use manually, fully automated with source attribution and confidence levels.
Vlad Shostak
Founder, Internal Insight
Writing on private company valuation, deal sourcing, and the mechanics of financial estimation for lower middle market dealmakers.